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New Hurricane Forecast Calls For 33 Named Storms This Season

Author Joe Winner
In this aerial view, parts of Sanibel Causeway are washed away along with sections of the bridge as Hurricane Ian passed through the area on September 29, 2022 in Sanibel, Florida. The hurricane brought high winds, storm surge and rain to the area causing severe damage. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

In their highest hurricane forecast ever, scientists from the University of Pennsylvania are calling for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33. Statistically, Florida would likely be in the crosshairs of at least 1.

In 2023, we had 20 named storms in the Atlantic Hurricane Season when their best guess was 15. This is quite a bit more. 33 would also smash the record of 30 in 2020 which mostly spared Southwest Florida.  28 named storms happened back in 2005. 7 of those 28 storms made landfall, Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy and Wilma. Those of us living in Florida at the time remember that season quite well. So where do they get the estimate of 33 for the 2024 season?

University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar using a statistical model including a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events. I’m not entirely sure what that all means, either. But it’s science.

3 main assumptions lead to this estimate.

  • the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season.
  • development of a moderate La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024.
  • climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.

Warmer water, warmer air, and the dreaded La Niña.

Hurricane Ian Slams Into West Coast Of Florida

Hurricane Ian Slams Into West Coast Of Florida (NASA)

Hurricane Forecast

So how good is the University of Pennsylvania at this? With a range between 27 and 39 storms called for this year let’s compare their previous record over the past 10 years. 5 of the years, the number of named storms fell within their range. The other 5, there were more storms than they expected. That’s not good. That would mean at least 27 named storms and possibly more than 40. Depending on how ‘right’ they are.

No Need To Panic.

As mentioned earlier, there were 30 named storms in 2020. Florida was barely touched that year. So yes, like their hurricane forecast shows, it is very likely we’re going to have a lot of named storms this year. But where they’ll go is anybody’s guess. We’ll be updating our Hurricane Guide for Southwest Florida soon.

Heartbreaking Photos Of Matlacha 17 Months After Hurricane Ian

It’s been a few months since my last trip to Pine Island. Every time I visit one of Southwest Florida barrier islands I still hold my breath, wondering what things are going to look like.  What is still standing and what has been razed due to too much hurricane damage. It’s nice to see the piles of debris cleaned up. Hopeful. However, those wide open beaches and lots are also a cruel reminder that  someone’s home or business once stood there. The island is showing great signs of recovery but there is still a long way to go as evidence by these heartbreaking photos of Matlacha 17 months after Hurricane Ian.

The bridge crossing from Cape Coral to Pine Island is still undergoing repairs and can get congested. Matlacha is the community that welcomes visitors to the island. It is small, on a narrow strip of land that is a haven for both artists and fishermen. It has an eclectic, funky vibe with brightly colored homes and businesses. Cottages full of upscale art share the island with dive bars full of shrimpers and everything in between. It is uniquely Florida and people love it.

What’s happening on Matlacha and Pine Island

I did not venture onto the rest of Pine Island this trip but was told it is in various stages of repair also. Part of the problem with rebuilding much of Matlacha is the fact that many structures were on land that eroded and were washed away by the hurricane. Not to mention the bureaucracy of insurance and government that so many hurricane survivors are all too familiar with.

If you go to Matlacha, many of the shops and galleries have reopened. For dining, The Perfect Cup is open and so is Blue Dog Bar and Grill. Further into Pine Island, The Lazy Flamingo and Tarpon Lodge are also open for dining. I was at the lodge over the summer and here are some photos I took from the drive out. You can see not all is gloom and doom.

Here is an update. Check out there photos of Matlacha 17 months after Hurricane Ian. Take a drive and visit the businesses that are open if you can.

Joe Winner spends his days combing through memes and off beat stories to bring you the side of Florida not always seen.

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